How will India be in 2030

globalization

Share of the world population in percent, 1950 to 2050

Source: UN - DESA, Population Division (2015): World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision
License: cc by-nc-nd / 3.0 / de /

The increase in the world population from 2.5 billion in 1950 to 7.3 billion in 2015 and further to almost 10 billion in 2050 is distributed very differently across the individual regions. While a good fifth of the world's population lived in Europe in 1950, it will only be around one in four in 2050. On the other hand, only one in eleven lived in Africa in 1950; Africa will account for more than a quarter of the world's population in 2050. According to calculations by the UN, global population growth until 2050 will take place almost exclusively in economically developing countries. In turn, the 48 economically least developed countries have an above-average share - between 2015 and 2050 the population here doubles from 0.95 to 1.9 billion.

Facts

Between 1950 and 2000, Europe's share of the world population fell from 21.7 to 11.9 percent (2015: 10.0 percent). According to the middle variant of the population projections of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN / DESA), the proportion will decrease further to 7.3 percent by 2050. Europe is also the only region in which the absolute population will decrease in future - between 2015 and 2050 by almost 32 million (minus 4.3 percent).

The increasing share of Africa in the world population is just as striking: while in 1950 only 9.1 percent of all people lived in Africa, in 2000 it was already 13.3 percent (2015: 16.1 percent). In 2050, more than one in four will live in Africa (25.5 percent). With an increase of 1.3 billion people, Africa is also the region in which the absolute population will increase the most between 2015 and 2050 (plus 108.9 percent).

The differences between the states are even greater than the differences between the regions. According to the UN / DESA, the population will decrease in 48 countries between 2015 and 2050 - contrary to global developments. In eleven countries the decline is even more than 15 percent: Bulgaria (minus 27.9 percent), Romania, Ukraine, Republic of Moldova, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Latvia, Lithuania, Serbia, Croatia, Hungary and Japan (minus 15.1 percent ).

On the other hand, the population in 31 states will more than double between 2015 and 2050. In twelve of these 31 countries, growth is even more than 150 percent: Niger (plus 263.0 percent), Zambia, Angola, Uganda, Mali, Tanzania, Burundi, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Malawi, Somalia, Chad and Gambia (plus 150 , 2 percent).

Only nine countries are responsible for more than half of the population growth calculated by 2050: India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, the USA, Indonesia and Uganda - listed in the order of their absolute share in the population increase. According to the middle variant of the UN / DESA's population projections, India will replace China as the most populous country from 2022. A good 1.4 billion people will live in each of the two countries in 2022. While the population of India will increase continuously to 1.5 billion in 2030 and 1.7 billion in 2050, according to the UN / DESA, the population of China will stagnate according to calculations until 2030 and then slowly decrease to 1.35 billion in 2050.

According to calculations by the UN / DESA, 98.5 percent of the global population increase by 2050 is based on population growth in the economically developing countries. While the population in the economically developing countries will increase by 2.34 billion between 2015 and 2050, it will remain almost unchanged in the economically developed countries (plus 35 million). In particular, the economically least developed countries have an above-average share of the calculated population growth: in these 48 countries alone, the population doubles from around 954 million to 1.9 billion (up 98.8 percent) between 2015 and 2050.

The birth rate in the economically developed countries is currently 1.67 children per woman on average (2010-2015). For the period 2045 to 2050, a slight increase to 1.82 is expected according to the medium variant of the UN / DESA population projections. In the economically least developed countries, the birth rate averages 4.27 children per woman (2010-2015). According to the UN / DESA, the birth rate will decrease to 2.91 (2045-2050). In the remaining economically developing countries, the birth rate will decrease from 2.37 to 2.09 children per woman - in the period from 1950 to 1955 the birth rate in this group was still six children per woman (6.01 ).

Data Source

United Nations - Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015): World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision

Terms, methodological notes or reading aids

The Population projections by the UN / DESA depend largely on the frequency of births. In this context, the UN / DESA theoretically uses the total fertility rate (TFR) as a basis, but the differences between the data in the individual countries are considerable.

Unless otherwise stated, the information given here relates to the middle variant of the UN / DESA population projections.

In the middle variant of the UN / DESA population projections, it is assumed that the birth rate in the economically developing countries will increase from 2.65 children per woman (2010-2015) to 2.30 or 2.00 children per woman (2045- 2050 or 2095-2100) decreases. A calculated deviation in the birth rate of around 0.5 upwards (high variant) increases the population in the economically developing countries by 0.9 billion in 2050 and by 4.8 billion in 2100. A deviation of around 0, 5 downwards (low variant) reduces the population - again compared to the medium variant - by 0.9 billion in 2050 and by 3.5 billion in 2100.

China excluding Hong Kong and Macau

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