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VDI Reports 2367 VDI-GME 4th VDI Conference with Exhibition Casting Chassis and Body Components 2020 Structural Applications of Cast Components Bad Gögging, February 11th and 12th, 2020 Image source: © BMW AG VDI REPORTS Publisher: VDI Wissensforum GmbH © VDI Verlag GmbH · Düsseldorf 2020 All rights reserved, including reprinting, reproduction (photocopy, microcopy), storage in data processing systems and translation, in part or in full. The VDI report, which contains the presentations at the conference, appears as an unedited manuscript print. The individual contributions reflect the views and experiences of the respective lecturers or authors based on personal knowledge. Printed in Germany. ISSN 0083-5560 ISBN 978-3-18-092367-3 Bibliographic information from the German National Library The German National Library lists this publication in the German National Bibliography; detailed bibliographical data are available on the Internet at www.dnb.de. Bibliographic information published by the Deutsche Nationalbibliothek (German National Library) The Deutsche Nationalbibliothek lists this publication in the Deutsche Nationalbibliographie (German National Bibliography); detailed bibliographic data is available via Internet at www.dnb.de. f Changing framework conditions Strengths and weaknesses of Chinese industrial and innovation policy using the example of e-mobility. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 K. Mühlhahn, Free University of Berlin Lightweight vehicle construction market trends for subframes, wheel-guiding components, batteries and BIW structures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 J. Gärtner, AluMag® Automotive GmbH & AluMag® Automotive LLC, Menden From vehicle developer to mobility designer and the role of the caster. . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 M. Moser, T. Kretzer, EDAG Engineering GmbH, Wiesbaden f Case study: Components and concepts Challenges in calculating the service life of aluminum hybrid structures - Solution approaches using examples of chassis components - Porsche Panamera and Taycan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45 S. Franschitz, I. Soproni, E. Lindtner, Cosma Engineering Europe GmbH, Weikersdorf Hybrid Manufacturing Process Chains Casting Additive - How aluminum die casting can be profitably combined with additive manufacturing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 S. wing, EDAG Engineering GmbH, Fulda; M. Oettel, Fraunhofer IWU, Dresden; A. Kleine, BOHAI TRIMET Automotive Holding GmbH, Harzgerode; S. Polenz, Fraunhofer IWS, Dresden Hollow profiles in die casting using the A-pillar as an example. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 F. J. Feikus, T Koch, Nemak Europe GmbH, Frankfurt / Main Cast battery trays for PHEV with suitable connection technologies. . . . . . . . . . . 81 U. Kreutzarek, S. Schüddekopf, Nemak Europe GmbH, Frankfurt / Main Bionics in the foundry - bringing additive manufacturing geometries into series economically today. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .89 M. Sterzenbach, BMW AG, Landshut Contents f case study part 2: Components and concepts of digitization in body development. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .97 T. Behr, C. Hirsch, T. Spoida, Mercedes Benz AG, Sindelfingen f Process optimization of vertical die casting in the DuoCast principle - retrospect meets progress. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 A. Dylong, Druckguss Service Deutschland GmbH, Lübeck Efficient die casting production through innovative tool concepts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121 A. Schäfer, BMW AG, Landshut; S. Heinrich, Schaufler Tooling GmbH & Co. KG Implementation of pulsed evaporative cooling for die casting tools in series production. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131 A. Haban, M. Fehlbier, Department of Foundry Technology GTK, University of Kassel; L. Reiche, M. Wöllenstein, Volkwagen AG Kassel Strengths and weaknesses of Chinese industrial and innovation policy using the example of E-Mobility Prof. Dr. Klaus Mühlhahn, Freie Universität Berlin The trade war between the USA and China did not go unnoticed by Europe. The dispute now goes beyond the huge trade surpluses criticized by the United States, and calls are being made that are primarily intended to force changes and restrictions in Chinese innovation policy. There is no question that China is pursuing an extremely active and comprehensive innovation policy, which, in addition to creating framework conditions, also and above all includes concrete help for entire branches of industry. A look at the area of ​​vehicle production, in particular the active conversion of mobility and the promotion of e-mobility, shows the strengths and weaknesses of Chinese industrial and innovation policy. 1. Background and framework conditions The growth potential in motorization, the dependency on imported oil, the increasing air pollution with health-threatening proportions, the technological lead of western automotive companies over the Chinese automotive industry are to be seen as key points for the application and systematic promotion of alternative drive technologies. As the most populous nation on earth, the growth potential in the area of ​​motorization of the population is by no means exhausted. Overall, the number of vehicles per capita is rather low compared to the European average. Out of 1,000 people owned only 105 vehicles at the end of 2014. For comparison: In Europe the number is 550-600 vehicles per 1,000 people. [1] With the steadily rising standard of living, more and more people in China can afford to buy a vehicle. With the increase in household income and so do the sales figures for cars. The number of vehicles will have tripled by 2030. [2] China is characterized by a heterogeneity that is caused by the country's extensive geographical expansion. Problems that affect industrial structures, for example, VDI reports No. 2367, 2020 1, consumer demand, social life, political participation and participation, can be perceived in different regions of China in different degrees of weakness or strength and can be of importance. [3] China has a huge energy demand, which it increases through imports due to its limited oil reserves. The largest share of energy production, namely 69.6%, is generated by coal (69.6%), the shares of crude oil (7.6%), natural gas (5.4%) and other primary energy (17.4%) ) are comparably lower. [4] In addition, China imports 462 million tons of crude oil (an increase of 10.1%); 90.39 million tons of natural gas (an increase of 31.9%) and 33.48 million tons of refined oil (an increase of 13%). [5] It is undisputed that China's rapid economic growth came at the expense of the country's air, land and water resources, which were already negatively impacted by decades of Stalinist economic planning with its emphasis on the development of heavy industry in urban areas and centuries of deforestation. The heavy air pollution in China is mainly caused by the use of fossil fuels, especially coal. In 2012, less than 1 percent of China's five hundred largest cities met World Health Organization air quality standards. The move to the cities also contributed to a steady increase in energy demand. The heavy traffic caused by increasing car ownership has become the main source of air pollution in Chinese cities. The vehicle population has increased dramatically from 16 million in 2000 to 108 million in 2012. Especially in cities where the rapid increase in motorization is concentrated, this has led to high environmental impacts from air pollution, traffic congestion and noise. As the world's largest manufacturer of vehicles, the automotive market in China is characterized by strict guidelines and access requirements for international automobile manufacturers. Very high import duties for fully assembled vehicles and strict establishment laws for manufacturers limit investment opportunities. Joint ventures from state or private domestic companies with transnational cooperations are therefore the rule in China. On the one hand, this is due to the fact that, when it comes to internal combustion engines, China’s automobile companies have not yet reached the technological level of foreign companies. This is all the more reason for China to generate a locational advantage with the comparably advanced domestic industry for batteries and accumulators. In addition to cooperations with foreign manufacturers, the automotive industry is currently developing in VDI reports No. 2367, 20202 China, especially in the field of electric vehicles with numerous new, smaller manufacturers. [7] The times of China's astonishingly high, annually increasing growth rates are now a thing of the past, and the pursuit of the highest possible output of goods at the expense of quality has given way to an active turn to an innovation-driven, technically highly developed economy and balanced growth at the same time . With this new paradigm of the “New Normal” of the current five-year plan, China has been following the path of efficiency and quality since 2016, while maintaining its own monopoly power. [8] 2. Measures and strategies to promote e-mobility As early as the 1990s, China recognized the potential for promoting research and development in the key technologies of electric vehicles. [9] In the early 2000s, the development of fuel cell cars began to be promoted, which, however, could not prevail. With the 11th five-year plan (2006-2010), China identified e-mobility, which relied on the use of lithium-ion batteries, as a “strategic emerging industry”. As a consequence, this has become one of the key sectors of the “Made in China 2025” development plan. China's hope was that large investments in e-mobility would turn China from a technological laggard into one of the leading countries in the automotive sector. In addition, the country's dependence on oil imports should be reduced and urban air quality should be improved. [10] From 2007 onwards, a system of market-regulating policies and purchase incentives was gradually added to the pure promotion of research and development of the new technologies. After 2009, the focus finally shifted to measures which, on the one hand, provided for state investments to promote electromobility in selected large and medium-sized cities. With the pilot program “10 cities, 1,000 vehicles”, 1,000 electric vehicles should be purchased in each of the (ultimately 13) cities for three years in a row. One focus of the measures taken by the respective local governments was on the acquisition of electric buses, taxis and supply vehicles, including the expansion of a charging network. With SEVIA, the “State-owned Enterprise Electric Vehicle Alliance”, an alliance of 16 of the largest state-owned companies from manufacturers of vehicles, electric motors, batteries and charging infrastructures was founded in 2010. Since then, this alliance has established national standards. [11] VDI reports No. 2367, 2020 3 If the investment sum in the period of the 11th five-year plan 2006-2010 by the state was still the comparatively small sum of 141 million euros [12], no costs have been saved since then in order to achieve both To promote supply from manufacturers as well as customer demand. According to calculations by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, China invested a total of 50 billion euros in industry between 2009 and 2017. The largest share was used for purchase premiums amounting to 32 billion euros. [13] With the start of phase 1 of the “Development Plan for Fuel-efficient and New Energy Vehicles” of the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015), however, considerable sums of money were also invested in research and development of key technologies in the field of fully electric, battery-powered vehicles and hybrid vehicles Ministries, on the one hand the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST), each prioritized other priorities in technological development. [14] The directive that was ordered with regard to the vehicle technologies to be produced stipulated a maximum fuel consumption of 5.6 liters per 100 kilometers. However, the production targets set for the period up to 2015 had to be reduced by half from 1 million electric vehicles and were nevertheless not achieved with 334,000 vehicles produced. [15] Too many uncertainties about charging infrastructures, doubts about future technologies that were no longer tested and companies' conservative investment behavior seemed to have a strong influence on sales in this first development phase. At the beginning of the 13th five-year plan in 2016, the phase 2 plan of the “Development Plan for Fuel-efficient and New Energy Vehicles” focused on the further development and broad application of the developed technologies for electric and hybrid vehicles. At the technological level, the maximum fuel consumption of vehicles has been reduced to 4.5 liters per 100 kilometers and the focus of the automobile production to be promoted has been placed on selected geographical regions. As a specific target to be achieved by 2020, 5 million vehicles were set, so that Chinese manufacturers would move to the top of the suppliers of electric vehicles worldwide. From today's perspective, China seems to be able to achieve this goal, even if purchase premiums have now been wholly or partially withdrawn and direct purchase incentives have thus been restricted. [17] VDI reports No. 2367, 20204 3. Actors When implementing the instruments, the central government, local governments, business and consumers must be taken into account as important actors. State China's state capitalism is "a hybrid, mixed economic system based on a few large, centrally-owned, state-owned companies and private companies with close ties to municipalities and local government agencies." [18] In many cases, the actors of the state and the market cannot be clearly separated from one another. With its fragmented authoritarianism, the Chinese state reserves the right to formulate and pursue long-term industrial plans. Political objectives are targeted in the long term, the advancement to and the assumption of market leadership in innovations are aimed for, for example, by the year 2045. The state's influence on the market is varied in its possibilities to implement or promote the implementation of strategic goals. [19] The Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST), the Ministry of Industry and Information (MIIT) and the Energy Office are responsible for implementing the goal of leading the way in the development of electrically powered vehicles. MOST is pioneering the major research and development programs, including research on electric vehicles. MIIT is responsible for the development of the electric vehicle industry and all related aspects. The energy office in turn controls the promotion of the development of the charging infrastructure. The measures of these bodies consist of financial aid or legal regulations and affect every single link in the value chain in the automotive industry, from the automobile manufacturers, the suppliers of auto parts, through the used car market, workshops to companies in the energy industry for the provision of electricity and charging infrastructure and finally the battery manufacturers. [21] It is difficult to measure what influence the environmental authorities have in this process. Basically, there are vertical as well as horizontal power structures, responsibilities are divided into numerous smaller institutions so that different parts of the instances / institutions are involved in decision-making and can postpone decisions. [22] VDI Reports No. 2367, 2020 5 Companies The current automotive sector in China developed under different conditions than it did, for example, in western market economies. The automotive industry only found its origin relatively late, in the 1950s, and stagnated for years. The reasons for this can be found in decentralization and inefficiency.[23] In the mid-1980s, the Chinese government declared the automotive industry to be an important pillar of the industry and subsequently approved a few joint ventures with foreign companies. A decade later, the government allowed more multinational companies to enter the Chinese automotive market to increase competition and promote the transfer of technology and know-how into the Chinese automotive sector. When China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, tariff cuts resulted in lower prices, which expanded the market. Regulations / laws that had prevented domestic companies in China from entering the automotive industry also crumbled. Accession to the WTO obliged the Chinese government to end technology transfer as a mandatory consideration for foreign companies, in fact market access continued to depend on the obligation to disclose knowledge of certain technologies and know-how to the Chinese partners. [24] In the course of the continuous opening of the Chinese automobile market to private companies, the number of companies in the automobile industry increased. At the latest since the special focus on e-mobility at the beginning of the 2000s and the financial incentives created by the state, the number has skyrocketed again. Of more than 100 companies in the automotive industry (other sources assume up to 200 companies), 24 manufacturers already offered more than 55 state-sponsored car models and 16 bus models with alternative drives in 2012. The number of providers for 161 models of commercial vehicles such as garbage, mail and cleaning vehicles and city buses was even larger with 51 providers. [25] The companies come from a wide variety of industries. BYD, originally exclusively a manufacturer of battery technology, developed into the largest private automobile manufacturer in China. The acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile Company in 2002 led to the establishment of BYD Automobile Co. Ltd. a. In 2015 BYD took the top global position for the first time as the best-selling brand for electric vehicles. The company is also rapidly intensifying its worldwide activities in the field of electromobility in order to strengthen the VDI reports No. 2367, 20206 pioneering role in this promising automotive segment at home and abroad. [26] Other private companies are Kandi, Zotye and Chery, which were also early leaders in the market with their relatively inexpensive small cars with a short range and low maximum speeds. State-owned companies such as Beijing Auto (BAIC), Shanghai Auto (SAIC) and Jiangling Motors (JMC) have also caught up in the ranking of sales figures. [27] In fact, Tesla has also managed to be successful in the Chinese market. Despite a 25% tariff on imported vehicles, the company generated sales of more than $ 2 billion in China in 2017. With the construction and the early start-up of a production workshop for its inexpensive range of vehicles, Tesla will soon also be producing directly in Shanghai and will no longer be solely dependent on imports. [28] National and local funding and incentive programs also drove the emergence of a rapidly developing market for charging infrastructures. This market is mainly dominated by three very large and four medium-sized companies, which operate a total of 90.8% of the 401,000 charging stations. Among the largest companies by number of charging stations are Qingdao Teld New Energy Co., Ltd with 131,000 units, State Grid Corporation of China with 88,000 units and Star Charge with 83,000 units. The remaining 9.2% are shared by 18 smaller providers, all of which have fewer than 10,000 charging stations. [29] Consumers Recent studies on consumer behavior when purchasing electric vehicles reveal some differences between Western nations and China. The most important aspects when making a purchase decision in China can be found in price, performance, quality, consumption and the brand. However, Chinese buyers show lower brand loyalty. From a western perspective, it is surprising that driving with environmentally conscious and environmentally friendly technologies has less of an impact on purchasing decisions. In fact, there is no significant positive correlation between air pollution and the decision to buy an electric vehicle. Environmental friendliness is seen more as an additional plus point, but not as relevant for the purchase decision. Personal relationships also seem to play another key role in the purchase decision for electrically powered vehicles. Various studies have shown that knowing someone who already owns such a vehicle can influence the purchase decision. In China, family members, peer groups, but also online networks and news distributors can encourage purchasing decisions. [30] Socio-cultural factors are crucial to these views. According to the study by Habich-Sobiegalla et al. from 2019, the level of education plays an important role. The higher a person's level of education, the greater the likelihood of purchasing electrically powered vehicles. Another significant factor is the level of income. In the income class with a net income equivalent to US $ 750-1,500, there is the highest number of people for whom the purchase of an electric car could be considered. Interestingly, the interest in such vehicles decreases from a net income of more than US $ 5,000. [31] This has to do with the fact that the car in China is more of a status symbol than in other western countries and the ideal value goes beyond the basic functionality as a means of transportation. From a technological point of view, the perception of limited flexibility, for example with regard to the charging infrastructure and the range, has an impact on the purchase decision. Easier access to charging stations, if possible at home, and fast charging times are aspects that have a strong influence on Chinese consumers when making a purchase decision. The car, regardless of whether it is powered by a combustion engine or electrically, should be able to cover distances between work and home as well as longer distances in the future. Conventionally powered vehicles have an advantage. 4. Strengths of industrial policy The current serious air pollution situation, especially in cities, reveals an urgent need for action to which the Chinese government and authorities are exposed. Knowing that the situation would not change quickly enough without government intervention, China is consistently driving forward e-mobility. By means of a long-term, central strategy, the state promotes implementation by taking short-term decisions on technical guidelines and standards as well as releasing funds for mobilizing and implementing the strategies. The political system of VDI reports No. 2367, 20208 one-party state benefits the implementation of e-mobility, as the influence of opposing voices is reduced. The prioritization of the development to become a global pioneer in e-mobility allows the Chinese state to provide enormous financial sums for industry but also for consumers and thus already compensate for possible financial hurdles in the expansion of charging infrastructure, in the development of improved technologies and in the acquisition of electric vehicles. At the same time, China is taking advantage of the weakness of foreign manufacturers in the development and production of electric vehicles, especially in battery production, and is seizing the opportunity it presents to take a pioneering role in the (necessary) ecological turnaround in the vehicle industry. [32] 5. Weaknesses in industrial policy It is important to recognize, however, that government intervention has pushed the market for e-mobility so much that much of this business activity would not even exist without the strong, visible hand of the state. Government grants make up over 42% of all sales, a high figure even in the People's Republic. The sector would not be profitable without government aid. BYD Auto (Build Your Dream Auto), one of the largest automobile manufacturers in China and a leader in the sale of electrically chargeable vehicles, based in Shenzhen, made a profit of 530 million euros on sales of 14 billion euros in 2017. The profits came almost exclusively from the sale of traditional gasoline-powered cars. The massive government support is problematic. With so many producers of e-mobility, it is almost impossible for even the largest to be profitable in the near future. The risk of overcapacity is high. Auto sales in China continued to decline in 2019, with unofficially reported drops of almost 20%. The growth expectations in the area of ​​e-mobility are also far too optimistic. Consumers still see electric vehicles as an "ethical duty" priority and have doubts about vehicle quality, range, maintenance and the cost of changing batteries. Very soon it will be difficult for manufacturers to sell their vehicles on the market. Many will then turn to investors, local authorities or the state for further help. A wave of consolidation is possible. [33] VDI reports no. 2367, 2020 9 The very state-led, narrow, strict innovation policy can also develop the opposite effect for innovations. With ever stricter guidelines that automobile manufacturers have to follow in order to be successful in the Chinese market, innovations that go beyond the actual development of electric vehicles may not be pursued, so that a “re-imagining of electric vehicles "[34] and unintentionally set limits for new technological developments. 6. Relevance for Germany and the world In order to be competitive in the electric vehicle segment, multinational and Chinese companies alike need strong dynamic capabilities. There are still great uncertainties. Accordingly, cognitive and perceptual skills are required in order to recognize which possibilities are to be pursued. The management must ensure that the necessary regular capacities and cooperation exist and that the cost structures match, at least in the long term, the expected income. [35] For global car manufacturers in particular, this means that there is an enormous amount of catching up to do in terms of innovations and marketing if they do not want to lose out on the Chinese market. The dangers are not limited to the Chinese domestic market. Should Chinese consumers lose interest, Chinese manufacturers could try to export electric vehicles (and their charging infrastructure) at greatly reduced prices. Millions of Chinese cars could be brought onto the world market, which could particularly endanger private producers in the supply chain who cannot count on the help of the Chinese state. [36] 7. Conclusion Chinese industrial policy is nowhere near as successful as many seem to believe. There is a long list of wasteful miscalculations, misallocation of resources, and failed investments. The officially propagated story of China's rise and technological innovation makes it easy to forget that there is a less efficient and less shiny side. The costs of the China model are serious, as can be seen in the waste of resources and environmental pollution. The reason for this is that decisions are often based on political ambitions and not necessarily on the open and competitive selection of the best ideas or the most innovative plans. Like many other governments in the world, the Chinese government is not a very good and efficient promoter of innovation because it is often committed to specific interest groups. The conclusion to be drawn from this story is not that the Chinese government should refrain from developing e-mobility or other advanced technologies, but rather that it should pay more attention to market signals and carefully examine the implications for other economies and the global economy. In particular, it is important to maintain technological diversity for as long as possible and to give producers and consumers at home and abroad ample opportunity to choose the options that are right for them, thereby allowing and promoting technological change. Chinese industrial policy must show greater responsibility and foresight. [37] VDI reports No. 2367, 2020 11 Notes and references: [1] EU SME Center. The Automotive Market in China, 2015, p. 11 https://www.eusmecentre.org.cn/report/automotive-market-china [2] Wu, T., Zhao, H. & Ou, X. Vehicle Ownership Analysis Based on GDP per Capita in China: 1963-2050. Sustainability, 2014, 6, 4877-4899. [3] Beigang, A., Clausen, J. Electromobility in China, case study as part of the Evolution2Green project - Transformation paths to a green economy, 2017, p. 7. [4] National Bureau of Statistics in China, 2018; preliminary data for 2017; http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2018/indexeh.htm [5] General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, 2018. http://english.customs.gov.cn/Statics /6fe5d71e-9732-4345-8488-96f2ce1d9566.html [6] Mühlhahn, K. Making China Modern: From the Great Qing to Xi Jinping. Cambridge, Massachusetts; London, England: Belknap of Harvard UP., 2019, pp. 592f; Wolter, F. & Scherf, C. (2016). Electric mobility in Asia. Overview, examples, possible solutions. InnoZ, 2016, p. 39. http://doczz.net/doc/5841801/elektromobilit%C3%A4t-in-asien. [7] Meissner, M. Electromobility: China's government plans a new start for the domestic auto industry (China Monitor No. 17). Merics, 2014. https://www.merics.org/sites/default/files/2019-08/China_Monitor_17_Elektromobilit%C3%A4t_DE.pdf, last access: 29.11.2019 .; Sun, L. Development Policies of New Energy Vehicles in China. Asian Social Science, 2012, 8 (2), p. 88; Tyfield, et al., 2014, p. 11 f; Beigang, A., Clausen, J. Electromobility in China, case study as part of the Evolution2Green project - Transformation paths to a green economy, 2017, p. 7. [8] Cf. Hong, DW, Cheung, D., Sit, D. China's 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020): Redefining China's development paradigm under the New Normal, 2015. http://ccilc.pt/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/chinas_13th_five-year_plan_2016-2020_redefining_chinas_development_paradigm_under_the_new_normal.pdf [9 ] Tyfield, D., Zuev, D., Ping, L. & Urry, J. Low Carbon Innovation in Chinese Urban Mobility: Prospects, Politics and Practices (STEPS Working Paper 71). Brighton: Steps Center, 2014, p. 14. VDI reports No. 2367, 202012 [10] Mühlhahn, K .. Light and shadow of Chinese industrial policy, in bdvb aktuell, 2019, No. 145. [11] Cf. Beigang , A., Clausen, J. Electromobility in China, case study as part of the Evolution2Green project - Transformation paths to a green economy, 2017; Automotive News China. 16 state-owned companies establish EV alliance. 08/20/2010. https://www.autonews.com/china/16-state-owned-companies-establish-ev-alliance. Last accessed: December 11, 2019. [12] Sun, L. Development Policies of New Energy Vehicles in China. Asian Social Science, 2012, 8 (2), p. 92; The value corresponds to the equivalent of CNY 1.1 billion. [13] Kennedy, Scott. China’s Risky Drive into New-Energy Vehicles, November 19, 2018, Center for Strategic and International Studies https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-risky-drive-newenergy-vehicles Last accessed: November 19, 2019. [14] Cf. Beigang, A., Clausen, J. Elektromobilität in China, case study as part of the Evolution2Green project - Transformation paths to a green economy, 2017; Mühlhahn, K .. Light and Shadow of Chinese Industrial Policy, in bdvb aktuell, 2019, No. 145. [15] Tagscherer, U. Electric mobility in China - A Policy review (Fraunhofer ISI Discussion Papers No. 30). Fraunhofer ISI, 2012, p. 4; Beigang, A., Clausen, J. Electromobility in China, case study within the framework of the Evolution2Green project - Transformation Paths to a Green Economy, 2017, p. 10. [16] Beigang, A., Clausen, J. Electromobility in China, case study in As part of the Evolution2Green project - Transformation Paths to a Green Economy, 2017, p. 11. [17] Cf. Bloomberg News. China Electric-Car Makers Hit by New Threat of Subsidy Cuts, 2019. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-11/chinese-electric-carmakersfall-on-possible-further-funding-cuts . Last accessed: December 10, 2019. [18] Mühlhahn, K. The People's Republic of China, Berlin / Boston: De Gruyter, 2017, p. 126 [19] Beigang, A., Clausen, J. Electromobility in China, case study as part of the Evolution2Green project - transformation paths to a green Economy, 2017, p. 12f. [20] Tagscherer, U. Electric mobility in China - A Policy review (Fraunhofer ISI Discussion Papers No. 30). Fraunhoher ISI, 2012, p. 2 VDI reports No. 2367, 2020 13 [21] Beigang, A., Clausen, J. Electromobility in China, case study as part of the Evolution2Green project - Transformation paths to a green economy, 2017, p. 13. [22] Tyfield, D., Zuev, D., Ping, L. & Urry, J.Low Carbon Innovation in Chinese Urban Mobility: Prospects, Politics and Practices (STEPS Working Paper 71). Brighton: Steps Center, 2014, p. 4 [23] Cf. Noble, G. W., Ravenhill, J., & Doner, R. F. Executioner or disciplinarian: WTO accession and the Chinese auto industry. Business and Politics, 2005, 7 (2): 1-33. [24] Teece, D.J. China and the Reshaping of the Auto Industry: A Dynamic Capabilities Perspective, in Management and Organization Review, Volume 15, Issue 1, March 2019, pp. 177-199. [25] Beigang, A., Clausen, J. Electromobility in China, case study as part of the Evolution2Green project - Transformation paths to a green economy, 2017, p. 10. [26] Cf. Teece, DJ China and the Reshaping of the Auto Industry: A Dynamic Capabilities Perspective, in Management and Organization Review, Volume 15, Issue 1, March 2019, pp. 177-199; Masiero, G., Ogasavara, M. H., Jussani, A. C., Risso, M. L. Electric vehicles in China: BYD strategies and government subsidies, in RAI Revista de Administração e Inovação Vol. 13, 1, 2016, pp. 3-11. [27] See Teece, D. J. China and the Reshaping of the Auto Industry: A Dynamic Capabilities Perspective, in Management and Organization Review, Volume 15, Issue 1, March 2019, pp. 177-199; Beigang, A., Clausen, J. Electromobility in China, case study as part of the Evolution2Green project - Transformation paths to a green economy, 2017; Pontes, Jose. 2017 China Electric Car Sales Blow World Out Of The Water - BAIC EC-Series Is A Superstar, Clean Technica, 2018. https://cleantechnica.com/2018/01/29/2017-china-electric-car-sales-blow -world-water-baic-ec-series-superstar /. Last accessed: December 4, 2019. [28] Pandadaily. Tesla Sales Double in China, Exceeding $ 2B in 2017, 2018 https://pandaily.com/tesla-sales-double-china-exceeding-2b-2017/. Last accessed: December 11, 2019 [29] Figures from the China Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Promotion Association cited by Renewable Energy World, 2019; 2019; EV-Trader, 2019 https://evtrader.com/c/charging-station-manufacturers/?fwp_location=china, status: 11.12.2019 VDI reports No. 2367, 202014 [30] Cf. EU SME Center. The Automotive Market in China, 2015, p. 11. https://www.eusmecentre.org.cn/report/automotive-market-china; Habich-Sobiegalla, S., Kostka, G., and Anzinger, N. Citizens' Electric Vehicle Purchase Intentions in China: An Analysis of Micro-level and Macro-level Factors, Transport Policy, 2019, 79, pp. 223-233 ; Zhang, Y., Yu, Y., Zou, B. Analyzing public awareness and acceptance of alternative fuel vehicles in China: the case of EV. Energy Policy 39, 2011 (11), 7015-7024. Wang, F., Yu, J., Yang, P., Miao, L., Ye, B. Analysis of barriers to widespread adoption of electric vehicles in Shenzhen China. Sustainability, 2017, 9, 522. [31] Habich-Sobiegalla, S., Kostka, G., and Anzinger, N. Citizens' Electric Vehicle Purchase Intentions in China: An Analysis of Micro-level and Macro-level Factors, Transport Policy, 2019, 79, p. 228f. [32] Cf. Beigang, A., Clausen, J. Electromobility in China, case study as part of the Evolution2Green project - Transformation paths to a green economy, 2017. [33] Mühlhahn, K. Light and shadow of Chinese industrial policy, in bdvb aktuell , 2019, No. 145. [34] Tyfield, D., Zuev D. Stasis, dynamism and emergence of the e-mobility system in China: A power relational perspective, in Technological Forecasting and Social Change 126, 2018, p. 268 . [35] Teece, DJ China and the Reshaping of the Auto Industry: A Dynamic Capabilities Perspective, in Management and Organization Review, Volume 15, Issue 1, March 2019, pp. 177-199 [36] Mühlhahn, K. Licht and Shadow of Chinese Industrial Policy, in bdvb aktuell, 2019, No. 145. [37] Mühlhahn, K. Light and Shadow of Chinese Industrial Policy, in bdvb aktuell, 2019, No. 145. VDI reports No. 2367, 2020 15 VDI- Reports No. 2367, 202016 Vehicle lightweight construction market trends at H Subframe, wheel-guiding components, battery and BIW structures - the race has begun, but a U-turn towards 2030 is possible! Dipl.-Ing. Jost Gärtner, AluMag® Automotive GmbH & AluMag® Automotive LLC, Menden 23/01/2020 1 AluMag® is “The Market Developer” that successfully penetrates new markets, creates business and localize leading suppliers for your company. AluMag® access any promising markets, open doors for your business in emerging and booming regions, markets, applications, materials, processes or products. AluMag® makes you successful - worldwide! AluMag® Worldwide Global Al / Mg Foundry, Forging Extrusion Databases for M&A, Supplier / Customer Localization or Competitor Analysis,… Automotive & Industrial Application Research, Material & Process Trend Analyzes Lightweight Technology Outlook in Aluminum, Carbon, Steel Composites & Magnesium Customized Market Intelligence European Automotive Forecast Access & Build-Up of new Markets in Automotive, Truck [Tractor], Trailer & Bus Industries Mainly Analysis, Development & Execution of Market Trade-Offs & Opportunities of New Technologies Manage new Product Launches Accelerate Market Penetration & Establish a Sales Force Interim Sales Management Organization of Technical, Commercial Roadshows & Events Globally Host In-House Events & Presentation Globally Common Technology Booth at Leading Exhibitions Supply-Chain Automotive Lightweight Symposium [SCALS] In EUROPE, ASIA & N.AMERICA Green & Brown Field Localization, from Site Selection to Foundation & Ramp-Up Warehousing, Distribution, Supplier & Tie-Up Localization Foreign Market Business Cases & their Realization M&A Target Research Interim CTO / COO & Plant Manager AluMag® penetrates new markets - initiate business growth- localize & develop supply chains AUTOMOTIVE LIGHT WEIGHTING MARKET TRENDS IN: BATTERY TRAY - BIW - CHASSIS / SUSPENSION ABSTRACT: The rising demand for electric vehicles [EVs] is expected to suppress the demand for ICE aluminum powertrain applications. On the other hand EVs and automatic driving applications will also provide many new prospects for aluminum, as well as other lightweight materials and processes. The lecture by AluMag® will provide insight into three promising aluminum applications, components in focus are: 1. BATTERY TRAYS [BEV & PHEV] 2. BIW comparison 3. CHASSIS / SUSPENSION The paper is be based on five recent analyzes, AluMag® has executed from end of 2018 to January 2020. The figures have partly taken out and have been replace by relations and percentage. Europe will represent the main region with China and a side view of North America. The AluMag® paper does contain dozens of pictures from third parties, which have been always names right hand side above of those. Extraction From AluMag® Study About CMS Source: AluMag® EV PENETRATION IS & WILL IMPACTING THE DEMAND FOR LIGHT WEIGHTING - MULTIBLE CHOICES 1 2 23/01/2020 1 AluMag® is “The Market Developer” that successfully penetrates new markets, creates business and localize leading suppliers for your company. AluMag® access any promising markets, open doors for your business in emerging and booming r gions, markets, applications, materials, processes or products. AluMag® mak s you successful - worldwide! AluMag® Worldwide Global Al / Mg Foundry, Forging Extrusion Databases for M&A, Supplier / Customer Localization or Competitor Analysis,… Automotive & Industrial Application Research, Material & Process Trend Analyzes Lightweight Technology Outlook in Aluminum, Carbon, Steel Composites & Magnesium Customized Market Intelligence European Automotive Forecast Access & Build-Up of new Markets in Automotive, Truck [Tractor], Trailer & Bus Industries Mainly Analysis, Development & Execution of Market Trade-Offs & Opportunities of New Technologies Manage new Product Launches Accelerate Market Penetration & Establish a Sales Force Interim Sales Management Organization of Technical, Commercial Roadshows & Events Globally Host In-House Events & Presentation Globally Common Technology Booth at Leading Exhibitions Supply-Chain Automotive Lightweight Symposium [SCALS] In EUROPE, ASIA & N.AMERICA Green & Brown Field Localization, from Site Selection to Foundation & Ramp-Up Warehousing, Distribution, Supplier & Tie-Up Localization Foreign Market Business Cases & their Realization M&A Target Research Interim CTO / COO & Plant Manager AluMag® penetrates new markets - initiate business growth- localize & develop supply chains AUTOMOTIVE LIGHT WEIGHTING MARKET TRENDS IN: BATTERY TRAY - BIW - CHASSIS / SUSPENSION ABSTRACT: The rising demand for electric vehicles [EVs] is expected to suppress the demand for ICE aluminum powertrain applications. On the other hand EVs and automatic driving applications will also provide many new prospects for aluminum, as well as other lightweight materials and processes. The lecture by AluMag® will provide insight into three promising aluminum applications, components in focus are: 1. BATTERY TRAYS [BEV & PHEV] 2. BIW comparison 3. CHASSIS / SUSPENSION The paper is be based on five recent analyzes, AluMag® has executed from end of 2018 to January 2020. The figures ha e partly taken out and have been replace by rel ti and percentage. Europe will re resent the main region with China and a side view of North America. The AluMag® paper does contain dozens of pictures from third parties, which have been always names right hand sid above of tho. Extraction From AluMag® Study About CMS Source: AluMag® EV PENETRATION IS & WILL IMPACTING THE DEMAND FOR LIGHT WEIGHTING - MULTIBLE CHOICES 1 2 VDI reports No. 2367, 2020 17 Preflight Lx3 on February 3, 2020 | 09:15:59 | 210.02 mm x 297.01 mm 23/01/2020 2 AUTOMOTIVE LIGHT WEIGHTING MARKET TRENDS IN: BATTERY TRAY - BIW - CHASSIS / SUSPENSION ICE - BEV - PHEV PRODUCTION EUROPE Source: AluMag® - Incl. light commercials The penetration of BEVs [battery electric vehicles] is expected to increase from 1.57% in 2019 to 10.15% of total European production in 2025, while PHEVs [plug-in electric vehicles] will increase from 1.09% to 5.92% over the same timeframe. The forecast generated based on AluMag European Automotive forecast considering outlooks from various industry sources. Recent announced sales and production figures for Europe convenience an increasing demand for BEVs, while PHEV sales is dropping. As around 50 new PHEV as well as new 33 BEV models will come to market during 2020 alone, AluMag® expect the penetration of BEVs and PHEVs to continue to grow over the analyzed timeframe and growth will be fueled by local production of VW ID3 & TESLA . 1.57% 10.15% 1.09% 5.92% 97.33% 83.93% 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 BEV PHEV ICE EUROPEAN ICE AND NEV [BEVS & PHEVS] PRODUCTION CONSERVATIVE FORECAST * U ni ts AUTOMOTIVE LIGHT WEIGHTING MARKET TRENDS IN: BATTERY TRAY - BIW - CHASSIS / SUSPENSION Overview How A Typical Design And Components Are Looking Like: AUDI Q8 Battery System And Its Components BATTERY TRAYS - PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS BASED ON AUDI Thermal Management & Overview How A Typical Design And Components Are Looking Like: AUDI Q8 Battery System & Its ComponentsAUDI Q8 Battery Cell Module Source: AUDI 3 4 VDI reports No. 2367, 202018 Preflight Lx3 on February 3, 2020 | 09:15:59 | 210.02 mm x 297.2367, 2020 19 Preflight Lx3 on February 3, 2020 | 09:16:00 | 210.02 mm x 297.01 mm 23/01/2020 4 AUTOMOTIVE LIGHT WEIGHTING MARKET TRENDS IN: BATTERY TRAY - BIW - CHASSIS / SUSPENSION PRODUCTION PROCESS FLOW AS EXAMPLE AUDI E-TRON: The production process flow illustrate “not” the typical steps in the value chain of a battery tray based on aluminum extrusion. But it shows and indicates the huge difference between simple / budget engineered and high-end versions. Constellium TKA Eloxal Weil der Stadt AUDI Györ ALRO According to an expert familiar with the matter informed, the cost of the processes, the various quality checks, transportations between and to the final destinations, are app xxx EUR / tray. Just "Lasering Contract Points free from E-Coat" cost xx EUR / tray. The weight is around 110 kg / tray. BATTERY TRAYS - BENCHMARKING EXTRUDED BASED ON AUDI E-TRON Source: AluMag® Extrusion Straightening Cutting to 6 m length Heat Treatment Cutting to final length Calibration by Hydroforming & Punching Washing & Passivating Assembling Frame & Floor to Tray Leakage test Washing & inner / outer E. - Coating Lasering Contract Points free from E- Coat Final Check & Packing & Shipment to AUDI Brussels Typical steps Steps depending on OEM specifications and concepts AUTOMOTIVE LIGHT WEIGHTING MARKET TRENDS IN: BATTERY TRAY - BIW - CHASSIS / SUSPENSION PRODUCTION PROCESS FLOW AS EXAMPLE AUDI E -TRON: APPENDIX: NEV BATTERY TRAYS - BENCHMARKING EXTRUDED BATTERY TRAYS - BENCHMARKING EXTRUDED BASED ON VW MEB ARCHITECTURE> ID.3 VW MEB / ID.3 Battery Tray Based on AL Extrusion VW MEB / ID.3 Battery Tray Based on AL Extrusion Source : Confidential AluMag® Source Source: Confidential AluMag® Source Source: Confidential AluMag® Source Source: Confidential AluMag® Source Source: Confidential AluMag® Source Source: Confidential AluMag® Source VW MEB / ID.3 Battery Tray Based on AL Extrusion VW MEB / ID.3 Battery Tray Based on AL ExtrusionVW MEB / ID.3 Battery Tray Based on AL ExtrusionsVW MEB / ID.3 Battery Tray Based on AL Extrusions 7 8 VDI reports No. 2367, 202020 Preflight Lx3 on February 3, 2020 | 09:16:01 | 210.02 mm x 297.01 mm 23/01/2020 5 AUTOMOTIVE LIGHT WEIGHTING MARKET TRENDS IN: BATTERY TRAY - BIW - CHASSIS / SUSPENSION 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 ABC D&E Aluminum Steel BATTERY TRAYS - EXAMPLES OF MATERIALS BY CAR SEGMENTS BATTERY TRAY MATERIALS BY SEGMENTS NISSAN Leaf VW e.GolfRENAULT ZOE BMW I3 AUDI E-Tron BMW PHEV VOLVO SPA PHEV JAGUAR I-Pace e.Smart Range Rover PHEV MB EQC PORSCHE Taycan MB PHEV PEUGEOT e.208 PORSCHE PHEV OPEL e.Corsa VW E-UP VW Passat GTE AUDI PHEV VOLVO XC40 PSA EMP2 PHEV RENAULT Kangoo ZE VW ID3 BMW 2-Series MINI Countryman Source: AluMag® U ni ts AUTOMOTIVE LIGHT WEIGHTING MARKET TRENDS IN: BATTERY TRAY - BIW - CHASSIS / SUSPENSION EUROPE BATTERY TRAEDYS - MAINE MATERIALS CARS Source: AluMag® AluMag® has analyzed 272K BEVs and 185K PHEVs being produced or started production in Europe in 2019. Of the 272K BEVs, more than 60% had an aluminum tray, rest were made out of steel. Of these aluminum trays more than 98% were a process hybrid, made out of AL sheet with extruded parts and in several cases also cast parts, like the VW ID3. On the other side 75% of the analyzed PHEV battery trays were made out of aluminum and 25% out of steel. The aluminum versions with 97% utilized cast aluminum content. BEV BATTERY UNITS WITH STEEL / ALUMINUM CONTENT Units Units PHEV BATTERY UNITS WITH STEEL / ALUMINUM CONTENT Steel Aluminum AL Cast AL Extruded AL Sheet Total Steel Aluminum Cast Extruded Sheet Total Source: AluMag® 9 10 VDI reports No. 2367, 2020 21 Preflight Lx3 on February 3, 2020 | 09:16:01 | 210.02 mm x 297.01 mm 23/01/2020 6 AUTOMOTIVE LIGHT WEIGHTING MARKET TRENDS IN: BATTERY TRAY - BIW - CHASSIS / SUSPENSION 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500 .000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 AL Cast AL Sheet AL Extruded Steel AL Sum NEV Production NEV BATTERY TRAY MATERIAL DEMAND FORECAST BATTERY TRAYS - MAIN MATERIALS IN EUROPEAN PRODUCED CARS The European demand for aluminum within battery trays, will be seven times higher in year 2025 compared to 2019 [CAGR: 37.61]. During the same timeframe steel demand is expected to increase too; with a factor of 10 until year 2025. The forecast is based on the battery material mix of the year 2019 and most recent NEV outlooks. Steel trays are mostly used in the lower segments where the market offering was very limited in 2019. During the next couple of years a number of new A & B segmented NEV models are planned to be launched, which could have a positive impact on the steel demand vs aluminum. CAGR: 37.61% N EV U ni ts Source: AluMag® To ns AUTOMOTIVE LIGHT WEIGHTING MARKET TRENDS IN: BATTERY TRAY - BIW - CHASSIS / SUSPENSION 10% Foreign NEV Production Forecast Scenario 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 Cast AL Extrusion AL CAGR: 28.1% BATTERY TRAYS - MAIN MATERIALS IN CHINA PRODUCED CARS In 2017 42% of all NEVs produced in China were fitted with an AL trays. 35% had an extruded AL tray while 7% had a cast AL tray. The remaining 58% were fitted with steel trays. By 2030 the penetration of AL trays could be influenced by factors such as adjustment of the Chinese incentive program, introduction of solid state batteries and improved battery technology. Newly developed processes and grades of AHSS has the potential to significantly outperform AL for future battery trays as result of steel performance flexibility, lower cost, light weighting capability, safety / collision performance, reduced greenhouse gas emissions and superior recyclability. Two German suppliers have been contracted by OEMs for such advanced forming and alloy grade steel battery trays. CHINA NEV PASSENGER VEHICLE MARKET: PENETRATION OF AL TRAYS IN UNITS & TONS DEMAND 6.91% 7.16% 34.64% 35.74% 58.45% 57.10% 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 Cast AL Extrusion AL Steel AL D em an d In T on s N EV s Pr od uc ed In C hi na - Uni ts [Compound Annual Growth Rate] Source: AluMag® 11 12 VDI reports No. 2367, 202022 Preflight Lx3 on February 3 , 2020 | 09:16:01 | 210.02 mm x 297.01 mm 23/01/2020 7 AUTOMOTIVE LIGHT WEIGHTING MARKET TRENDS IN: BATTERY TRAY - BIW - CHASSIS / SUSPENSION 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 BATTERY TRAYS - MAIN MATERIALS IN CHINA PRODUCED CARS The demand for cast aluminum within battery trays is expected to grow by a factor of 17 in the period 2017 - 2030 in China. [10% foreign OEM production penetration]. Cast aluminum is rarely used as material for BEV & PHEV battery trays in China, which is partly related to the lack of a qualified supply chain / equipment. Cast aluminum for BEV trays will likely only play a minor role while steel sheet and extruded aluminum are predicted to be the preferred material.But foreign Premium OEMs such as VW, Daimler, Cadillac & BMW favor cast aluminum as housing for PHEV batteries. Subaru & Geely has implemented HDPC Magnesium in battery trays. C as t A lu m in um [T on s] Cast Demand By Segment 2017 CHINA CAST DEMAND FORECAST FOR BATTERY TRAYS - PASSENGER VEHICLES 2017 China Material Mix [>