How much is a quarter of 1982 worth
New quarter, new hope
Many fans of the noblest of all metals will be happy that the first quarter of 2021 is now behind us. In US dollars, the gold price fell ten percent over the three months, which was the worst start to the year since 1982. At the same time one could draw hope from this, because in 1982 the gold price lost 19.5 percent in the first quarter, but at the end of the year it had increased by around 15 percent compared to the previous year after a rapid catch-up. Followers of the yellow metal should therefore not despair.
US yields, dollars and stocks all rise
The reasons for the weak first quarter are obvious. The yield on ten-year US Treasuries climbed from 0.9 percent at the beginning of the year to a 14-month high of 1.77 percent this week. If this already dampens the demand for gold that does not pay interest or dividends, there is also the fact that the US dollar has gained around four percent in value since the beginning of the year, both against the euro and in total due to the rising yields in the USA other G10 currencies. Since many stock indices around the world reached new all-time highs in the first quarter, many large investors also shifted part of their portfolios to the stock markets. The inventory of exchange-traded products that are backed with physical gold lost about 30 percent of its growth from last year.
Gold in US dollars slightly weaker on a weekly basis
After all, the gold price was able to compensate for a not insignificant part of the temporarily more significant losses over the course of the week. It initially rose from US $ 1,728 per ounce last Friday morning to 1,737 on Friday afternoon. With the new 14-month highs in US yields and the four-and-a-half-month high of the US dollar, the gold price slipped below the 1,700 mark on Tuesday and returned to the previous week's low of 1,678. With US yields falling slightly and a slightly weaker US dollar, the gold price recovered yesterday afternoon and is currently trading at 1,715.
Xetra-Gold also loses slightly
As a result, the Xetra Gold price also fell somewhat, but only slightly. During normal trading hours, it initially rose from € 47.15 per gram last Friday morning to € 47.35 in the afternoon. From here, however, he set back to 46.00 on Tuesday afternoon. At the start of trading today, Xetra-Gold should be quite a bit firmer, at 47.10.
Tomorrow, Good Friday, the US labor market data will be released. If the result surprises the markets that are sparsely populated due to the holidays, these could influence yields, the US dollar exchange rate and thus also the gold price.
We wish all readers a relaxing, sunny Easter weekend.
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