AOC will run for president in 2024
The US President's plans - Trump 2024 - a realistic scenario?
Donald Trump is apparently considering running again. He would not be the first president to be re-elected after a four-year hiatus.
For the first time there are signs that Donald Trump is well aware that he will have to move out of the White House in January 2021. At least indirectly, this becomes clear, because as the US news website Axios reports, Trump has told his advisors that he is considering a candidacy for 2024. This is said to have been confirmed by two independent sources.
A US president can be elected twice, although this does not have to be consecutive, so Trump could be re-elected in four years. Whether the Republicans would then elect him again as a candidate would be another question. The Republicans are currently loyal to Trump, and even fear the influence he could continue to exert on the party.
Trump's team plans events
Trump 2024 is a scenario that is becoming more relevant every day: Trump has little chance in court, but will never admit defeat because he deeply detests losers. Instead, he goes back to campaign mode and will talk to thousands of cheering spectators about the “corrupt system”, the “swamp in Washington” and the “stolen elections” - just as his fans love it, as he loves it.
Fox News and Axios unanimously reported on Monday that Trump's team is already planning similar events to stir up mood against the election result. It is unclear whether the president will appear there. Big fan parades are also to be organized, in which Trump supporters in motorcades or in boats assure the president of their support with a sea of flags. This is also to show that at least some of the Americans believe that Trump won after all.
The courts are hardly impressed by this, but the Republicans are, who cannot free themselves from Trump's grip. The gains in the House of Representatives and the likely majority in the Senate also show that their base does not see the “Grand Old Party” completely on the wrong track, on the contrary. Never before has a Republican candidate received so many votes - Trump ultimately narrowly missed re-election, despite the corona disaster, economic downturn, impeachment, lies and other weaknesses in character.
Grover Cleveland as a role model
So Trump 2024 is not just a fantasy, but a very possible scenario. He wouldn't be the first president to run again after being voted out of office - there's even an example where such a comeback has been successful: Grover Cleveland. The Democrat was elected 22nd US President in 1884, in one of the dirtiest election campaigns ever. In 1888 he did not succeed in re-election and had to admit defeat to Benjamin Harrison. Cleveland was the first candidate to receive a majority of the vote (48.6 to 47.8 percent), but lost because of the electors on the electors' committee. Harrison secured 233 votes there, Cleveland only 168. After that, only Al Gore in 2000 and Hillary Clinton in 2016 lost the elections, although they received more popular votes. Both were Democrats too.
Cleveland was nominated again by his party in 1892 and now clearly beat Harrison. He received three percent more votes and also won 277 voters, the Republican incumbent only came to 145. Cleveland is the only president to date who has made this comeback. He is considered the 22nd and 24th President of the USA and has thus also created confusion in the way of counting. For example, Donald Trump is the 45th president, but because Cleveland is counted twice, he is actually only the 44th person in this office. This is not officially calculated that way.
Teddy Roosevelt failed
Cleveland was the only Democrat to secure the highest office in a span of 52 years between 1861 and 1913. Woodrow Wilson succeeded in doing this in the 1912 elections, but only because of the divided Republicans. In addition to the incumbent President William H. Taft, Theodor Roosevelt was also a candidate. Roosevelt had previously been President of the United States for almost eight years. He took office in 1901 when William McKinley died after an assassination attempt. He was 42 years old at the time and the youngest President of the United States to this day. In 1904 he managed to be re-elected, but in 1908 he did not run for a possible second election, but supported his war minister Taft.
Because he was not satisfied with his policy, Roosevelt wanted to be re-elected in 1912. The Republicans decided on the incumbent president, whereupon Roosevelt ran for the "Progressive Party". The Republican votes were split between the two candidates, with benefits for Teddy Roosevelt. The beneficiary was Wilson, who was able to achieve a landslide victory on the electoral committee. The Republicans then flirted with nominating Roosevelt again for the 1920 elections, but the ex-president, who had been in poor health after an expedition in the Amazon basin, died in January 1919 at the age of 60.
Age doesn't speak against him
Age could also be an issue for Trump. He will be 78 years old in June 2024. But that didn't stop Joe Biden either. The now elected 46th President will be just 78 years old next week, on November 20th. Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell, just re-elected for another six years in office, is also 78 years old. Nancy Pelosi, the spokeswoman for the House of Representatives, the third most powerful position in the country, is even 80. As astonishing as that sounds, his age would not necessarily speak against Trump in 2024.
When Donald Trump was sworn in in January 2017, he also registered as a candidate for 2020. If he actually has ambitions for 2024, things will be quick this time too, with such an announcement he could even try to steal the show from Joe Biden when he was inaugurated. Before that, a candidacy for 2024 would also be seen as an admission of electoral defeat and therefore rather unlikely.
Election campaign without election ambitions?
So Trump could switch back to election campaign mode by moving out of the White House and also keep the donation machinery alive, regardless of whether the Republicans actually set him up or not. So more money would come in, which is apparently important even for the allegedly extremely rich Trump, as the collection campaigns for the legal disputes after the election have shown. There it is noted in the small print that up to 60 percent of the donations will be used to pay off election debts. And if the courts crush the lawsuits from Trump's lawyers, he could use the leftover money for his next stage shows.
CNN and other media consider Trump 2024 realistic, and the New York Times can also imagine this - in addition to setting up its own Trump TV station. At the Washington Post, columnist Paul Waldman believes in a different scenario. There are some arguments in favor of a renewed candidacy: Trump will probably get into legal and certainly financial difficulties after his departure from the White House. His name now stands for a major defeat, making the further marketing of the Trump brand more difficult. And Trump will certainly not take a back seat as a quiet retiree like other ex-presidents, he needs attention like the air to breathe.
That is why he will tour the country with the “Trump 2024” slogan to make America great again. He'll get his speaking time on Fox News, but he won't go through with the election, Waldman predicts. After three years of campaigning, Trump would call it an end, because otherwise he would risk too much - he could not afford another defeat. He'd rather remain the ex-president whose re-election was “stolen”.
No matter how it comes out, the most important thing to Waldman is that Trump will continue to seek attention over the next few years. With his tweets in capital letters he will try to entice journalists to write articles about him. But the great thing is that the media would then have the choice of simply saying no and no longer reporting on him.
Kamala Harris is the favorite
The report will be in two years at the latest, but will definitely be about other candidates for 2024. It is not yet clear whether Joe Biden will then renounce in favor of Kamala Harris, but is actually expected. This is also evident with the bookmakers. The favorite there is the new Vice President Harris, at OddsShark, for example, she leads 5: 1 in front of Mike Pence and the former American UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (8: 1). Biden follows with 12: 1 ahead of Pete Buttigieg and Michelle Obama, who, however, has never registered any ambitions for the office. With a rate of 25: 1, Donald Trump is tied with the Democrats Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Elizabeth Warren.
At the betting giant Bwin, known in Europe, Joe Biden (4.5: 1) leads just ahead of Kamala Harris (5: 1), followed by Donald Trump (11: 1), ahead of Mike Pence (17: 1). After that, you can bet on everything that the bookmakers found in the campaign environment, such as Ivanka Trump (26: 1) or Donald Jr. (34: 1). Actor George Clooney apparently has the same good chances as Kanye West (51: 1), who really wants to run for office in 2024. Oprah Winfrey (101: 1) is also with the bookmaker.
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