How will Donald Trump win re-election

Why Trump is likely to win : The long election calendar favors the incumbent

Donald Trump can go into the election year with some confidence. That is amazing. The polls don't look favorable to him. Only 44 percent rate his work as president positively, 53 percent negatively. In most of the surveys of whom Americans prefer to be president, Democrat Joe Biden or him, Trump loses.

He also lags behind other democratic applicants, albeit less clearly. Still, a majority of Americans, as well as a majority of Germans, believe that Trump will win the November election.

What speaks for him

First, the good economic situation. Economic growth in the USA - in 2018 it was 3.1 percent, in 2019 over 2 percent - is higher than in the EU, and the unemployment rate (3.6 percent) is lower. Many households have more real incomes than in previous years. And the stock exchange prices on which pensions depend in the USA have risen dynamically under Trump: the Dow Jones Index from around 18,000 points when it was elected in 2016 to 28,700 points today.

Second, the Democrats' disagreement over which strategy promises more success: a moderate candidate like Joe Biden (or Michael Bloomberg) who reassures voters by assuring them that they can achieve economic success like under Trump, but with less domestic drama and foreign policy risks? Or left-wing candidates like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren, who inspire the grassroots with the promise of a change of course? They say it could bring more Democratic voters to the polls than Trump can mobilize fans.

Trump can sit back

Third, the election calendar and the US electoral system favor Trump. For much of the 2020 election year, Democrats will focus their energy and financial resources on their nomination. The 50 state primaries begin February 3 in Iowa and end in early June.

Only when it is clear who will stand for the Democrats does the competition within the party for the nomination turn into the usual election campaign between two camps in Europe. If the primaries do not result in a clear winner, the decision will not be made until the Democratic Party conference in Milwaukee, Wisconsin in mid-July. Republicans meet for their party conference in Charlotte, North Carolina in late August.

During all this time, Trump can sit back, watch the internal quarrels of the Democrats and comment mockingly in tweets. As well as soliciting donations. In the fourth quarter of 2019, Trump and the Republicans raised $ 154 million in campaign donations, the four leading Democrats combined $ 103 million. The core election campaign between the camps takes place in the eight weeks between “Labor Day” in early September, the traditional end of the summer recess in the USA, and election day on November 3rd.

The electoral system is also working in favor of Trump. Who becomes president is not decided by who wins the most votes nationwide; Hillary Clinton had three million more votes than Trump in 2016. Whoever wins the most electors becomes president. Each US state is counted individually, and whoever is ahead receives all electors from that state (“winner takes all”); their number depends on the number of inhabitants. In sum, the Republicans in this system use their voter potential more efficiently than the Democrats.

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