Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020

2020 US election: On the way to re-election

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Anyone who has written off Donald Trump in recent years has always been taught better. When he announced his candidacy in 2015, it was initially said that he had no chance of the Republican nomination. After he had left all internal party opponents behind, most political experts were convinced that he would lose to the Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. After Trump's election victory, commentators eventually predicted that the Russia investigation would corner Trump.

None of this happened. Two and a half years after starting his presidency, Trump has the office tighter than ever. On Sunday, a survey confirmed that he had the highest approval rating of his term in office: 44 percent of voters are satisfied with their president, 53 percent are not.

That doesn't sound particularly impressive at first, but earlier polls show that Trump tends to be even more popular than the national average in the swing states of the Midwest, which may be decisive for the election. A conservative columnist of the Washington Post, who commissioned the new poll, sees him ahead in the race for re-election.

Good economic data helps Trump

In fact, there is currently much to be said for another election victory for the New York businessman. The economic data, for example, looks good. Unemployment is only 3.7 percent. Even if the ongoing economic recovery after the financial crisis in 2008 is probably responsible for the boom and not so much the politics of the president: According to surveys, voters are largely positive about Trump's economic record.

In addition, the President has shown credibility in recent years. As announced, he started a trade war with China, which is a burden for consumers, but enjoys approval in both political camps and among a large part of the population.

For the announced construction of the wall on the border with Mexico, the US president accepted a partial government shutdown lasting several weeks and issued a national emergency. Trump's goals may be rejected, but his stamina is remarkable. For most Americans, his administration has had little negative impact so far. The hardships of Trump's policy are mainly felt by the migrants who are held at the border or deported under inhumane conditions.

The weakness of the Democrats

The fact that things are currently looking good for Trump is not only due to his strength, but also to the weakness of the Democrats, who have been making politics against the interests of the workers for decades. With the signing of the North American free trade agreement NAFTA, the Democratic President Bill Clinton ensured that jobs for non-academics in particular fell away. At the height of the financial crisis, the newly elected President Barack Obama turned down guarantees for indebted homeowners after his advisors advised against them. Millions of Americans lost their homes while the financial industry was bailed out with public money.

In 2016, this development accumulated in the nomination of Hillary Clinton, who, with her election campaign financed by wealthy investors, made hardly any socio-political demands, apart from her rather half-hearted demands for equality for women and minorities. Trump, on the other hand, positioned himself to the left of most Republican candidates in terms of social policy by declaring his support for state pension insurance and public health insurance for the elderly.

Clinton's defeat could have been a wake-up call for the Democrats. One could have reinvented oneself as a workers' party and distinguished oneself in the political environment stirred up by Trump with a clear left-wing economic and socio-political course. The model for this had already been provided in 2016 by the socialist Bernie Sanders, who had great successes against Clinton in the primary campaign with radical demands for a minimum wage of $ 15 and general health insurance.